C-11D DocumentedCritics’ errors
Confidence in the 2016 forecasts
Evidence grade D: His own recorded words or signed acts, or facts established by named reporting.
What happened
Through the 2016 campaign, many forecasters and commentators treated a Clinton victory as highly likely.
Where it stands
He won the Electoral College. A May 2017 review by the American Association for Public Opinion Research found national polls were largely accurate, but state polls missed his late gains, partly because they did not adjust for education and missed late-deciding voters.
Harm
Institutional. Overconfident forecasts fed doubts about polling and the press.
Response from the other side
Pollsters note that national polls came close to the popular vote, which Clinton won, and that several forecasts gave him a real chance.
Sources
- Campaigns & Elections, May 5, 2017campaignsandelections.comhttps://campaignsandelections.com/industry-news/aapor-report-2016-polls-failed-because-of-weighting-and-late-deciders/ #89
Status checked October 15, 2026. Court cases move; before relying on a pending matter, open the source for later developments.